Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.107438 0.121503 0.136717 0.154399 0.174389 0.196293 0.222121
2025-12-28 0.087596 0.106465 0.128382 0.155726 0.188952 0.228045 0.277585
2026-01-04 0.070737 0.091802 0.117903 0.152647 0.197735 0.254349 0.330977
2026-01-11 0.058902 0.081281 0.110743 0.152413 0.209933 0.286705 0.397261
2026-01-18 0.050205 0.073400 0.105728 0.154144 0.224987 0.325151 0.478098
2026-01-25 0.040858 0.063063 0.095718 0.147325 0.227095 0.346174 0.538340
2026-02-01 0.033150 0.053849 0.085862 0.139091 0.225741 0.361893 0.593407
2026-02-08 0.027763 0.047331 0.079075 0.134456 0.229142 0.385335 0.664446
2026-02-15 0.023307 0.041592 0.072624 0.129283 0.230765 0.406063 0.734430
2026-02-22 0.020794 0.038760 0.070592 0.131295 0.244956 0.450136 0.852213
2026-03-01 0.017787 0.034548 0.065479 0.126942 0.246968 0.472870 0.934901
2026-03-08 0.015484 0.031280 0.061584 0.124213 0.251527 0.500896 1.032231
2026-03-15 0.013481 0.028337 0.057981 0.121732 0.256716 0.532021 1.143513
2026-03-22 0.012301 0.026873 0.057080 0.124604 0.273345 0.588876 1.318641
2026-03-29 0.010918 0.024753 0.054501 0.123521 0.281462 0.629442 1.466266
2026-04-05 0.009877 0.023213 0.052922 0.124385 0.294073 0.681937 1.650692
2026-04-12 0.009063 0.022052 0.052002 0.126610 0.310233 0.745192 1.872311
2026-04-19 0.007883 0.019828 0.048292 0.121611 0.308359 0.766083 1.994765
2026-04-26 0.006789 0.017632 0.044302 0.115252 0.302050 0.775248 2.089505
2026-05-03 0.005996 0.016065 0.041608 0.111731 0.302405 0.801197 2.233384
2026-05-10 0.005279 0.014579 0.038883 0.107668 0.300645 0.821435 2.365814
2026-05-17 0.004914 0.013978 0.038372 0.109519 0.315367 0.888230 2.641996
2026-05-24 0.004368 0.012785 0.036085 0.106023 0.314449 0.911840 2.797502